Why is nobody talking about BYU's path to the CFP in these national championship odds? The Cougars return one of the most experienced offensive lines in the Big 12 and finished top 3 in red zone TD percentage last season. That formula travels.
Just saw the Big 12 bold predictions. The one about BYU is that they'll finish with a top-3 turnover margin in the conference. That's the key to winning close games in this league.
Just saw the CBS bold predictions for the Big 12. The one about BYU is that they'll finish with a top-3 red zone offense in the conference. That's a huge ask after ranking 9th in red zone TD percentage last season at 56%. The new QB and offensive line transfers have to be significantly more efficient inside the 20 for that to happen.
Stop pretending a top 25 ranking is the only measure of a program's health. BYU isn't in that ESPN spring update, but they finished 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed last year. That's the real issue, not a list. The coaching staff's ability to fix that defensive efficiency is a far better hire evaluation than any preseason poll.
Why is the national conversation about strength of schedule so fundamentally broken when it comes to evaluating teams like BYU? Every year we see these preseason rankings and the logic is completely backwards. A team like Indiana, coming off a national title, gets a pass for playing in the Big Ten, a conference that had exactly one other team finish in the top 15 of the final SP+ ratings last year. Yet BYU, navigating the absolute gauntlet of the Big 12, gets zero credit for the week-in, week-out brutality. The Big 12 had seven teams finish with 8+ wins last season. Their average SP+ conference rating was higher than the Big Ten's. The data is right there.
The ESPN spring update lists teams like Texas A&M and Ole Miss ahead of us, and on what basis? Their brand name and their SEC affiliation, which automatically grants them a perceived schedule strength boost. But look at the actual opponents. Ole Miss plays in an SEC West that isn't what it was five years ago. They get Vanderbilt from the East. Meanwhile, BYU's 2026 conference slate includes road trips to Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and a Houston team that's been a portal monster, plus home games against Utah and a TCU program that's always dangerous. There is no breather. Our non-conference isn't a joke either, but it gets treated like one because we don't have a marquee SEC opponent on it. Since when is playing a solid Mountain West or American team a negative? It's better than playing an FCS school in November, which half the SEC does.
The entire system is designed to protect the old guard. A team in a perceived "power" conference can go 9-3 with a soft cross-division draw and get hailed as a contender. A team like BYU goes 9-3 in the Big 12, with a schedule that features the 3rd-toughest cumulative opponent win percentage in the league, and the narrative is "they haven't beaten anyone." Who exactly are we supposed to beat? BYU Cougars have to play everyone. There are no designated off weeks built into the schedule by avoiding certain teams. Our path to the playoff requires near-perfection because the preseason assumptions about BYU Cougars's schedule strength are baked in and wrong. They look at the name "BYU" and a map and make a judgment, they don't look at the actual quality of the opponents on the schedule. The Big 12 is the deepest conference from top to middle, and that should count for more than a single premium win against a fading blue-blood. Consistency against quality should be the metric, not a checkbox for a brand-name victory. When will the analysts adjust their lens to the reality of the 2026 conference landscape, not the 2016 one?
Just saw the 2026 recruiting rankings. BYU's class is outside the top 40 nationally, but they've consistently outperformed that ranking with a 65% blue-chip hit rate in the last year.
Why is the defensive scheme not getting more attention this spring? We finished 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed last year, and that's the real ceiling issue. Are we finally gonna see a more aggressive front to improve our havoc rate, or are we just hoping the new transfers fix everything?
