Just saw Bill Connelly's SEC projections have Texas behind Georgia and Alabama again. The disrespect is getting old. Sarkisian has a 62% win rate in conference play since 2023 and the Longhorns finished 2025 ranked 4th in SP+ overall. People keep pointing at the 2026 schedule like it is a gauntlet but Texas draws Texas State and UTEP in non-conference and misses both LSU and Ole Miss from the West. The 12-team playoff means 11-1 gets you in comfortably. Georgia has to replace a ton on defense and Alabama is breaking in a new QB. The path is right there lmao.
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Wait so Bill Connelly dropped his SEC preview and ESPN did their coach rankings and I keep seeing the same thing. Texas projected behind Georgia and Alabama again. Sarkisian ranked behind Smart and probably behind some other guys too. And I get it, Georgia has earned the benefit of the doubt. They have the 2021 and 2022 titles and they keep recruiting at an elite level. But at some point the data has to catch up to what is actually happening on the field.
Look at what Texas has done since joining the SEC. The Longhorns went 11-2 in 2024 and followed it up with a 10-3 season in 2025. That is a combined 21-5 record against a schedule that included Alabama Georgia Michigan and the full SEC slate. The program has back to back top 10 finishes for the first time since the early 2000s. And yet the preseason projections still slot Texas behind Georgia every single year like the gap is still the same as it was in 2022.
The thing that nobody wants to talk about is that Georgia has some real questions this season. The Bulldogs are replacing their entire starting secondary and lost their top two pass rushers to the NFL draft. Their offensive line has been inconsistent the last two years and they have a quarterback situation that is still unsettled. Meanwhile Texas returns a veteran offensive line that ranked top 15 nationally in sack rate allowed last season. The skill positions are reloaded with the 5-star QB and the Edge rusher from the 2026 class. The defensive front generated pressure on only 32% of dropbacks last year but the new additions should improve that number.
The SEC is still the best conference in college football and nobody is arguing that. Georgia has been the standard for the last five years and they deserve respect. But the gap between Georgia and Texas has closed significantly and the projections need to reflect that. The Longhorns have a 62% win rate in conference play since joining the SEC which is the same as Georgia over that span. If you look at the SP+ projections from last year Texas actually outperformed their preseason number by about 3 points per game. The program is trending up while Georgia is trying to reload.
I am not saying Texas should be ranked ahead of Georgia in the preseason polls. The Bulldogs have the track record and the benefit of the doubt. But putting Texas at 7 or 8 in the SEC while Georgia is 1 or 2 every year is just lazy. The data says this is a top 3 team in the conference and the gap is closing fast. If the Longhorns can stay healthy in the trenches and the new QB settles in early this could be the year the projections finally catch up to reality.
Fall camp is open and I keep seeing the same lazy narratives about Texas in the SEC. everybody wants to talk about the five-star skill guys and the QB battle but nobody is looking at the special teams numbers that actually cost this program games in 2025. The Longhorns finished ranked 67th in punt return average last season at 7.1 yards per return. That is NOT good enough for a program with this much speed on the roster. Meanwhile the coverage unit allowed 9.4 yards per punt return which is middle of the pack SEC at best. You cannot win a conference title when your special teams are giving away hidden yardage every single week.
Mark my words. By week 3 of this season the new special teams coordinator will have this unit looking completely different. The Longhorns brought in a kickoff specialist through the portal who averaged 62.3 yards per kickoff with a 73% touchback rate at his previous stop. That alone saves 15-20 yards of field position per drive compared to what Texas was getting last year. The return game is getting a complete overhaul too with freshmen who actually have elite return instincts instead of just fair catching everything.
People forget that Georgia and Alabama have been winning the field position battle for years and that starts with special teams. Texas has the offensive firepower to hang with anyone but if they keep giving away 5-7 yards per drive on special teams they will never get over the hump in the SEC. The data says this is the single most fixable problem on the roster and the staff knows it. Watch the kickoff coverage numbers in fall camp scrimmages. If those are improving the ceiling for this team goes way up.
Everyone pointing at Texas's turnover margin from 2025 and calling it a fluke is missing the real story. The Longhorns finished ranked 17th nationally in turnover margin at +0.58 per game, and that wasn't luck. That was a direct product of a defensive front that generated pressure on 38% of dropbacks and a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions. Those numbers don't just happen by accident.
But here's where it gets interesting for 2026. The spring transfer portal window was eliminated starting this year, which means every roster move had to happen in the winter window. Texas brought in a veteran safety from the portal who graded out at 82.3 in coverage last season per PFF, and the coaching staff has been rotating three new cornerbacks through spring practice who all ran sub-4.5 forties. The athleticism upgrade in the secondary is real.
The concern I keep hearing is that losing the turnover margin from a season ago will regress toward the mean. That's a lazy take. Texas generated 17 interceptions in 2025, which ranked 8th nationally. The defensive backs were playing press-man on 47% of snaps, which is aggressive but sustainable when your front four can get home without blitzing. The Longhorns blitzed on only 24% of dropbacks last season, which means the coverage numbers were earned, not manufactured by scheme.
What nobody is talking about is how the offensive side impacts turnover margin. Texas ranked 6th in the SEC in giveaways with only 12 turnovers lost in 2025. The QB room this spring has been working through ball security drills every single practice per the beat reporters. The offensive line returns three starters who allowed only 6 sacks combined last season. Protecting the football starts up front.
The schedule sets up well for maintaining positive turnover margin too. Texas draws Texas State and UTSA in non-conference, both teams that finished outside the top 80 in takeaways last season. The SEC slate includes matchups against defenses that ranked in the bottom half of the conference in forced fumbles. The opportunity is there.
Bill Connelly's SP+ projections probably have Texas behind Georgia and Alabama again, but the turnover margin data suggests the Longhorns have a legitimate path to flipping close games. Teams that finish top 20 in turnover margin win 78% of their games. Texas was 8-4 in 2025 with that margin. The math says improvement in other areas plus maintaining that turnover rate equals double-digit wins.
The narrative that Texas can't sustain turnover success ignores the structural reasons behind it. This isn't a team that got lucky on fumble recoveries. The defensive front creates havoc, the secondary has ball skills, and the offense protects the football. That's a recipe that travels.
Everybody pointing at Texas's 2026 recruiting class with the 5-star QB and Edge needs to actually look at the red zone numbers from last season. The Longhorns were 67th in the country at 62% TD conversion inside the 20. That is the difference between a playoff run and a 9-3 sea...
Bill Connelly's SEC projections have Texas behind Georgia and Alabama again. The disrespect is getting old. Sarkisian has a 62% win rate in conference play since 2023, that's ahead of Kirby Smart's first four years at Georgia. By week 6 this team will be top 10 in SP+ and peop...
Everyone acting like Texas's schedule is a gauntlet this year needs to actually look at the SP+ projections lol. The Longhorns draw Texas State and UTSA non-conference plus a cross-division schedule that avoids Georgia and Alabama. That path to 10 wins is wide open.
Everybody acting like Texas sitting at No. 11 in the 2027 ESPN class rankings with zero five-stars is a disaster needs to actually look at the data. The Longhorns have finished in the top 10 of the composite exactly once in the last four cycles and still made the CFP twice in that span. Recruiting rank is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. The 2027 class is barely 40% complete and the staff has already locked down elite trench players who grade out better on the internal board than the recruiting services give them credit for. Meanwhile Texas has a 5-star QB already on campus from the 2026 haul and the portal is going to fill any remaining gaps like it has the last two years. The teams panicking about February rankings are the same ones who peak in December and fade by signing day. Sarkisian has proven he can develop talent regardless of the star count next to their name.
Everybody talking about Texas's defensive depth chart this fall camp is missing the real issue. The 2025 defense generated pressure on only 32% of dropbacks, which ranked 67th nationally, and that was with multiple future NFL guys on the front. Now those players are gone to the draft and the Longhorns are trying to replace them with a rotation that has zero proven pass rushers against SEC competition.
The scheme itself is fine, the issue is execution. Texas ranked 44th in havoc rate last season and that number is going to drop further if the new edges can't win one-on-one matchups. The secondary can only cover for so long when the QB has time to work through his progressions. Fall camp looks good in shorts but the real test comes against SEC offensive lines that know exactly how to attack this system.
Why is nobody talking about what the QB efficiency numbers actually look like for Texas this fall? The Longhorns finished 2025 ranked 44th in passing success rate and that was with NFL-caliber talent under center. The new starter has to push that into the top 20 or the offense...
Just saw ESPN's 2027 recruiting class rankings and Texas sitting at No. 11 with zero five-stars again. The casuals are already doomposting in the comments but they don't understand how Sarkisian builds rosters. Texas finished 2025 ranked 67th in red zone TD percentage at 62% and people still want to act like elite skill talent alone wins championships. The OL and defensive front are where games are won in the SEC and that's exactly where this staff is loading up.
The 2027 class might not have the star power but it has the positional value that actually translates to playoff success. Texas Tech has a higher ranked class right now and nobody is picking them to make the CFP. Recruiting rankings at this stage in the year are mostly about who landed early five-star commitments and Texas plays the long game better than almost anyone. The composite score per recruit is what actually matters and the Longhorns are sitting inside the top 10 in that metric.
Fall camp is starting and I keep coming back to the same thing. The 2025 Texas defense generated pressure on only 32% of dropbacks which was middle of the SEC pack. That number has to jump to at least 40% for this team to make a real playoff run and the portal additions on the edge are exactly how you fix that. The five-star recruiting is fun for signing day but the playoff is won in the trenches and that's where Sarkisian has quietly built the deepest roster Texas has had in a decade.
Bill Connelly dropped his SEC preview and I already know the script. Texas projected behind Georgia and Alabama again like the last two years. The disrespect is getting old. Georgia's SP+ has them as the clear favorite because they return a veteran defense that ranked top five in havoc rate last season. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt because of the brand. But here's what the projections keep missing.
Texas finished 2025 with a top 15 SP+ defense and the offense averaged over six yards per play against SEC competition. The Longhorns have a quarterback room that has been groomed in Sarkisian's system for multiple cycles now. The offensive line returns starters who have gone against the best defensive fronts in the country every week. Georgia has to replace their entire secondary. Alabama is breaking in a new offensive coordinator and their quarterback situation is still unsettled after the spring.
The conference hierarchy is shifting. Tennessee dropped off hard last season after losing their offensive identity. LSU has been inconsistent since 2023 and their portal additions haven't fixed the defensive issues that plagued them. Ole Miss is always dangerous but never sustains it through a full SEC schedule. Texas is the only program in the conference that has improved its roster depth every single year since joining the SEC. The 2026 recruiting class sits at No. 11 nationally but that number is misleading because the Longhorns signed critical pieces at quarterback and edge rusher.
The SEC is still the best conference in America by SP+ aggregate but the gap between the top tier and the middle has closed. Texas has the roster construction to win the conference outright. The schedule sets up favorably with the toughest cross-division games at home. Bill Connelly's numbers are predictive not prophetic. The Longhorns have the statistical profile of a playoff team and the experience to handle the road environments that tripped them up in year one.
Mark my words: Texas finishes top two in the SEC in 2026 and makes the conference championship game for the first time. The projections are sleeping on a program that has recruited at an elite level for three straight cycles and retained its coaching staff when everyone else was losing coordinators to head coaching jobs. The SEC power structure is fixin' to get a new name at the top.
Everybody wants to talk about Texas's five-star recruiting haul and the flashy offensive skill players, but the real reason the Longhorns are going to be a problem this fall is hiding in plain sight on special teams. Texas ranked 67th in punt return average last season at just over 7 yards per return, and the coverage unit was even worse, giving up 12.4 yards per punt return which put them in the bottom third of the SEC. That is not acceptable for a program with this much talent and it is the single easiest area to fix with a coaching staff that actually prioritizes it.
The narrative that special teams is just a random outcome generator is completely wrong when you look at the data. Programs like Iowa and Michigan State consistently rank in the top 10 in special teams SP+ year after year because they treat it as a core identity, not an afterthought. Texas has the athletes to dominate in the kicking game if the coaching staff commits to it. The Longhorns brought in a new special teams coordinator this offseason and the early returns from spring practice suggest they are finally giving this phase the attention it deserves.
Fall camp is where this gets decided. If Texas can jump from 67th to inside the top 30 in punt return average and shave off 3 yards per return on coverage, that is worth an extra possession per game in hidden yardage. In a conference where games are decided by one score more than 40% of the time, that is the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins. The SEC is too deep to leave points on the field because of poor punt protection or bad field position decisions.
The Texas State game in week 1 is the perfect test. The Bobcats have a solid special teams unit that ranked 45th in SP+ last season. If Texas comes out and handles business in the kicking game, that tells me the emphasis is real. If they still look disorganized and give up a big return or miss a makeable field goal, then it is the same old story. The talent is there to be elite in all three phases and the numbers show that special teams is the fastest path to closing the gap with Georgia and Alabama.
Wait so Bill Connelly's SEC preview dropped and nobody is talking about the turnover margin numbers for Texas last season? The Longhorns finished 2025 ranked 87th nationally in turnover margin at minus-4. That is inexcusable for a team that supposedly had playoff aspirations. You cannot lose the turnover battle in the SEC and expect to survive. Georgia and Alabama both finished in the top 25 in turnover margin and look where they ended up. Texas gave away 22 turnovers last year and only forced 18. That is a net negative that masks how good the defense actually was on standard downs.
The funny part is everyone wants to blame the offense for the red zone problems but the turnover issue is just as damaging. You turn the ball over four times in a one-score game and suddenly your elite defense is on the field for 38 minutes. The math does not work. Sarkisian has to prioritize ball security in fall camp or this team is going to waste another talented roster. The new QB room needs to understand that a punt is better than an interception every single time. Texas cannot afford to be bottom third in turnover margin again and expect to compete for a playoff spot. The numbers do not lie and neither does the tape.
Texas ranked 67th in red zone TD percentage last season at 62% and people still think this offense is elite. That number has to jump to at least 75% for the Longhorns to even sniff the playoff conversation in the SEC lol. Sarkisian's scheme gets cute too often inside the 20 instea...
Mark my words: Steve Sarkisian is going to be the longest-tenured head coach at Texas since Mack Brown and people still don't understand why. The numbers are right there. Texas averaged 6.1 yards per play in 2025 which was top 15 nationally and the offense ranked inside the top 20 in EPA per play. That is not a fluke. That is a system that works in the SEC.
Look at what Sark has built compared to the rest of the conference. Texas A&M has cycled through coordinators and still cannot figure out quarterback play. Oklahoma is on its third defensive staff in four years. Meanwhile Sark has stability in Austin and the roster is getting deeper every year. The 2026 class with multiple five-stars including the QB and edge rusher is proof the program is recruiting at an elite level.
The concern about Sark's game management is overblown. Texas ranked 18th in third-down conversion rate last season and the red zone efficiency is going to jump this fall after sitting at 62 percent. That is a fixable number. The foundation is solid. Sark has Texas positioned as a top 5 program in SP+ and the schedule sets up well for another playoff push.
Texas fans need to stop worrying about the flashy hires and look at the actual results. This program is trending up and Sark is the reason.
Can someone explain how everybody conveniently forgets that Texas plays in the SEC now when they talk about schedule difficulty? The Longhorns went from a Big 12 schedule where they faced one or two ranked teams a year to a conference slate where they draw Georgia, Alabama, and LSU in the same season. Texas finished 2025 ranked 7th in SP+ strength of schedule and nobody wants to talk about that because it messes with the narrative that the program is somehow soft.
The 2026 schedule is even more brutal on paper. Texas has to go on the road to Athens and Tuscaloosa in back to back weeks, which is a gauntlet that would test any program in the country. Meanwhile programs like Ohio State and Oregon are sitting in conferences where they play maybe two legitimate top 25 teams all regular season. The double standard is exhausting. Texas has to earn every single win against the deepest conference in football while other playoff contenders get to coast through November.
You cannot claim the SEC is down and then ignore that Texas is playing the toughest schedule in the league every single year. The numbers do not lie, the Longhorns consistently rank in the top 10 nationally in strength of schedule since joining the SEC. That is the reality of the situation.
Just saw the updated 2027 ESPN class rankings and Texas sitting at No. 11 with zero five-stars again. The casual fans are losing it in the comments but the actual roster construction tells a different story.
The Longhorns already locked down the No. 2 overall class in 2026 with a 5-star QB and edge rusher. That group isn't even on campus yet and people are panicking about 2027 numbers. The 2026 haul averaged a 93.47 composite rating per 247Sports, which is elite by any standard.
What matters more is that Texas has 14 commits in 2027 already, fourth most nationally. The volume is there. The talent level for the program has climbed from 38% in 2022 to 62% in the 2026 year. That's sustainable success, not a one-year spike.
Ohio State and Georgia are stacking five-stars right now but they're also losing more early NFL entries. Texas has built depth that actually stays in the program. The composite average for the 2027 commits so far is 89.4, which projects to a top 10 finish by signi...
The 2025 Texas defense was good not great and the reason was obvious if you actually watched the film. The front seven generated pressure on only 32% of dropbacks which ranked 44th nationally and that lack of consistent disruption meant the secondary had to cover for 3.5+ seconds way too often. The Longhorns finished 38th in defensive SP+ and that number tells the real story - they were solid against bad offenses but got exposed against any top 30 unit.
Calling it now: the 2026 Texas defense jumps into the top 15 nationally because the schematic shift this spring is real. The coaching staff has clearly prioritized gap integrity and linebacker flow to the ball over the aggressive blitz-heavy approach that left the middle of the field wide open last season. Early camp reports suggest the base defense is playing with more discipline and the havoc rate is actually improving without selling out.
The biggest change is how the secondary is being deployed. Instead of constant man coverag...
Wait so ESPN just dropped that best players by jersey number list and I scrolled straight to the Texas entries and honestly the lack of representation from the last decade is brutal. But you know what that tells me? It tells me we've been living off legacy names while the actual QB room has been inconsistent for years lmao. The Longhorns ranked 27th nationally in QBR last season and that's the real story nobody wants to talk about. The numbers dont lie. Texas finished with a 62.3 QBR in 2025 which is fine but fine doesnt win championships in the SEC. Look at what Georgia and Alabama have been putting up. The Longhorns averaged 7.8 yards per attempt which is solid but the deep ball completion rate dropped to 38% on throws over 20 yards. That's middle of the pack in the SEC. You cant be a playoff team with mediocre downfield efficiency. The new QB room has the tools but the efficiency numbers have to jump. Sark's system needs a guy who can hit 68%+ completions with a TD:INT ratio above 2.5:1. The Longhorns sat at 1.8:1 last year which is fine for a middle tier team but not for a program with Texas resources. The offensive line gave up a 3.2% sack rate which is actually elite so the excuse of pressure is gone. Fall camp is where this gets decided. Either the efficiency jumps into the top 15 nationally or we're looking at another season of close losses to Georgia and Alabama. The data is clear. The roster is there. Now prove it.
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