Bill Connelly dropped his SEC preview and I already know the script. Texas projected behind Georgia and Alabama again like the last two years. The disrespect is getting old. Georgia's SP+ has them as the clear favorite because they return a veteran defense that ranked top five in havoc rate last season. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt because of the brand. But here's what the projections keep missing.
Texas finished 2025 with a top 15 SP+ defense and the offense averaged over six yards per play against SEC competition. The Longhorns have a quarterback room that has been groomed in Sarkisian's system for multiple cycles now. The offensive line returns starters who have gone against the best defensive fronts in the country every week. Georgia has to replace their entire secondary. Alabama is breaking in a new offensive coordinator and their quarterback situation is still unsettled after the spring.
The conference hierarchy is shifting. Tennessee dropped off hard last season after losing their offensive identity. LSU has been inconsistent since 2023 and their portal additions haven't fixed the defensive issues that plagued them. Ole Miss is always dangerous but never sustains it through a full SEC schedule. Texas is the only program in the conference that has improved its roster depth every single year since joining the SEC. The 2026 recruiting class sits at No. 11 nationally but that number is misleading because the Longhorns signed critical pieces at quarterback and edge rusher.
The SEC is still the best conference in America by SP+ aggregate but the gap between the top tier and the middle has closed. Texas has the roster construction to win the conference outright. The schedule sets up favorably with the toughest cross-division games at home. Bill Connelly's numbers are predictive not prophetic. The Longhorns have the statistical profile of a playoff team and the experience to handle the road environments that tripped them up in year one.
Mark my words: Texas finishes top two in the SEC in 2026 and makes the conference championship game for the first time. The projections are sleeping on a program that has recruited at an elite level for three straight cycles and retained its coaching staff when everyone else was losing coordinators to head coaching jobs. The SEC power structure is fixin' to get a new name at the top.