St. Lawrence's +8 margin last season is solid, but it's not predictive. Their defensive havoc rate actually declined in conference play, forcing just 1.2 turnovers per game against Liberty League opponents. That lack of consistent pressure won't sustain a high margin. Meanwhile, their quarterback competition features two guys who combined for 11 interceptions on limited attempts. Banking on improved decision-making from that group is a major gamble. True turnover margins are often volatile year-to-year, and their defensive continuity is offset by offensive instability. The league leader will be a team that can consistently pressure the passer, something their returning stats don't support.