Texas sitting at 4th nationally in 2026 recruiting is the foundation but the playoff projection has to account for that schedule. Ohio State on the road plus the SEC gauntlet with a rebuilt roster means 10-2 is the ceiling unless the portal additions at linebacker hit immediately. The Longhorns are a top-8 team by SP+ projection right now but not top-4 until the new offensive line rotation proves it can hold up against Georgia and Alabama level fronts.