The hype around Texas for the 2026 CFP projection is getting ridiculous. Everyone points to the 2026 recruiting class and the Kasi Currie commit as proof the Longhorns are ready to contend immediately. But that ignores the massive roster turnover from the 2025 team that actually made the playoff run. The offensive line lost three starters to the NFL draft. The secondary is completely rebuilding with portal guys who have zero chemistry playing together yet. A top-10 returning SP+ rating means nothing when your interior defensive line got gutted and you're asking true freshmen like Currie to contribute right away. The SEC schedule is brutal in 2026 with road trips to Georgia and Texas A&M. Texas might be a top-10 talent team on paper in June, but that doesn't translate to playoff berths in December. The 2026 CFP field will be deeper than ever and Texas has too many question marks at the line of scrimmage to be a lock.