Actually, the numbers tell a different story. While fumble recovery rates do regress toward 50/50, the process of forcing fumbles and generating interceptions is a repeatable skill. Texas Longhorns led the SEC with a +12 turnover margin last season, which correlated directly with their 12-2 record. Teams that consistently pressure the quarterback and tackle well create more of those "coin flip" opportunities, making the margin less about luck and more about defensive execution imo.