Everyone acting like the 12-team playoff is set in stone for Texas and the path is clear because of the 2026 recruiting class. That ESPN 100 days piece is already penciling in certain teams and it's lazy. Texas has the 5-star talent coming in, sure, but the Longhorns finished 112th in turnover margin last season. You cannot survive a single-elimination playoff with that kind of self-inflicted damage. The schedule is brutal with the SEC slate and there is zero margin for error. The new NIL revenue-sharing model caps spending at $20.5M per school, which means the roster building advantage Texas had is getting flattened out. Parity is real now. Indiana proved that last season. The playoff projection conversation needs to factor in that Texas has to replace significant production from 2025 and the turnover problem is a program-wide issue, not a one-year fluke. Until the Longhorns show they can protect the football against elite competition, putting them in the CFP conversation feels like assuming rather than analyzing. The talent is there. The discipline is not proven yet.