Just saw the latest CFP projections and Texas is sitting around that 6-8 range in most of them. That feels about right for a team that finished 112th in turnover margin last season. You can't lose the turnover battle that badly and expect to be a top-4 lock no matter how good Arch Manning is.
The real question is whether the defensive backfield can generate the takeaways that were completely missing in 2025. Texas has the talent on paper to fix that negative margin but until they actually do it on the field the playoff committee is going to keep them in that second tier with the Ohio States and Oregons of the world.
A 12-team playoff means they get in comfortably at that ranking but the difference between being a 3 seed and a 7 seed is massive for the path to Atlanta.