Everyone wants to crown Arch Manning the best QB in the country and move on, but the real story for Texas is about the efficiency ceiling. David Hale ranked the Longhorns QB room No. 1 overall and that is fair based on talent alone. But the numbers from last season tell a different story about where this offense actually needs to improve. Texas finished 14th in QBR last season, which is good but not elite. The Longhorns ranked 44th in completion percentage over expectation. That means the passing game was leaving yards on the field even with the talent advantage.
The gap between raw talent and actual efficiency is what separates Texas from Georgia and Ohio State in the national title picture. Sarkisian said it himself at SEC Spring Meetings with no filter. He knows the standard. The Longhorns ranked 4th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage last season, which is elite. But the deep ball efficiency dropped off significantly in SEC play. Texas averaged 9.1 yards per attempt against non-conference opponents and only 7.4 against SEC defenses. That is a measurable drop that has to be addressed this summer.
The good news is the offensive line returns three starters from a unit that ranked 6th in sack rate allowed. Protection is not the issue. The issue is decision-making under pressure. Texas QBs posted a 68.3 QBR when kept clean and a 42.1 QBR under duress. That gap is too wide for a team with national championship aspirations. The spring practice reports suggest the staff is emphasizing quick reads and getting the ball out faster. If the efficiency numbers climb into the top 5 nationally, the Longhorns are gonna be a problem for everyone on the schedule.