The narrative around Texas's strength of schedule next season is getting completely overblown and I need to push back on it. Everyone keeps pointing at the SEC schedule and acting like the Longhorns are walking through a minefield every single week but the data tells a different story entirely.
Look at what Texas actually faces in conference play. The Longhorns draw Oklahoma from the SEC West which is a rivalry game that always carries weight but the Sooners finished 112th in SP+ defensive efficiency last season and lost their starting QB to the portal. That's not the same Oklahoma that used to strike fear into opposing defenses. Texas also gets Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East division and both programs ranked outside the top 40 in yards per play allowed in 2025. Those are winnable games by any reasonable measure.
The real meat of the schedule comes down to three games: Georgia at home, Alabama on the road, and LSU at a neutral site. Georgia returns only 47% of their defensive production according to the returning production metrics and lost their entire starting secondary to the NFL draft. Alabama is breaking in a new offensive line with five portal transfers learning a new system in spring ball. LSU has the talent but their defensive front ranked 67th in havoc rate last season and that's a problem against a Texas offensive line that returns four starters.
People keep saying the SEC gauntlet is gonna wear Texas down but the Longhorns have the 5th most returning production in the conference and their schedule features only three teams that finished in the top 25 of SP+ last year. Compare that to Georgia who has to play Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee on the road plus Auburn and Ole Miss at home. The Bulldogs face five top-25 SP+ opponents. Texas faces three.
The non-conference schedule is a joke and that's where the criticism actually lands. Texas State, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP combine for a projected win total under 15 games. That's three free wins before conference play even starts. But here's the thing: every top program schedules this way. Ohio State plays Akron and Kent State. Georgia plays Ball State and Georgia State. Alabama plays Western Kentucky and South Alabama. Nobody is penalizing them for it.
The real advantage for Texas is the bye week placement. The Longhorns get a week off before the Red River Shootout and another bye before the LSU game. That gives the coaching staff two full weeks to prepare for the two biggest games on the schedule. Meanwhile Alabama has to play Texas the week after facing LSU and Georgia has back-to-back games against Tennessee and Ole Miss before the Texas matchup.
SP+ projects Texas's schedule as the 34th toughest in the country. That's middle of the pack nationally and 8th toughest in the SEC. The Longhorns have the 4th most returning production in the conference and the 6th ranked recruiting class coming in. The schedule is manageable enough for a 10-win season and favorable enough for a...