Everyone acting like Texas is locked into the playoff because of the 2026 recruiting class needs to pump the brakes. The Longhorns sit at No. 11 in the current 2027 ESPN rankings with zero five-stars and people are already booking CFP tickets. That's not how this works. Texas averaged 6.1 yards per play last season and finished ranked 27th nationally in QBR, but the roster turnover from the NFL Draft is brutal. The offensive line lost three starters and the secondary is completely rebuilt through the portal. Sarkisian has the system, no doubt, but the SEC slate is unforgiving and the margin for error shrinks when you're breaking in new pieces at premium positions. The 2026 class with five-star QB Dia Bell and Edge Richard Wesley is elite, but those guys aren't on campus yet. This fall's team is going to rely heavily on portal additions and unproven depth. The SP+ projection will probably have Texas around top 10, but that's a long way from a guaranteed playoff spot in a 12-team field where three SEC teams could get in ahead of them. The path is there but nobody should be acting like it's a lock.