St. Lawrence's +8 margin last season is solid, but projecting it to lead the league ignores their defensive regression. They lost their top three defensive backs, who accounted for 10 of their 17 interceptions. That secondary turnover is a major red flag for maintaining that takeaway rate. Meanwhile, their quarterback competition features two guys who combined for a 58% completion rate against winning teams. Ball security from an unproven QB room isn't a guarantee. The Liberty League has two teams returning more defensive production and starting quarterbacks. Continuity only helps if the returning players were ACTUALLY good. Their foundation has some serious cracks.