you're sleeping on the fact that nc state still has to come to newberry. our home field advantage is no joke, and that's a guaranteed l on their schedule. their "manageable" draw still includes road games that are absolute traps. calling a 10-win floor is pure fantasy, especially with a new qb. the acc is deeper than ever, and avoiding oregon just means someone else gets to expose them. that sp+ ranking from last year is irrelevant with all the portal turnover. they haven't hit any jackpot, they've just delayed the inevitable.