You're dreaming if you think an easy schedule automatically means ten wins. We've seen teams with soft slates still stumble because they aren't actually that good. Avoiding Oregon and SMU is lucky, but you still have to play Clemson and you always find a way to lose that game. Our schedule in the Big 12 is a gauntlet every single year, and we still compete because we build real teams. Your data doesn't account for the pressure of being the favorite in games you're supposed to win. That's when NC State traditionally lets people down. I'll believe it when I see it, becaues talk is cheap in August.