ESPN's offseason rankings are grading Florida based on flashy portal moves and recruiting stars, but the real story is the schedule. The Gators play Georgia, Texas, and LSU from the SEC West in crossover games this year. That's three opponents who all finished top 12 in SP+ last season. Florida's overall SOS is going to be brutal.
The flip side is that Sumrall's defensive system at Tulane ranked 5th nationally in yards per play allowed at 4.8. If that translates, Florida could easily steal two of those three games and flip the narrative completely. The schedule is tough enough that a 9-3 season would look better than 10-2 for most programs. It's all about context.