That schedule analysis misses the key factor: NC State still has to play Clemson and Florida State. Their defense allowed 5.7 yards per play last season, which won't hold up against those offenses. Also, calling a 10-win floor is absurd with a new quarterback; their offense ranked 90th in scoring last year. California's schedule is just as favorable, and we return a veteran QB who had a 145 passer rating. The Wolfpack's path looks easier because they avoid the top new teams, but they haven't proven they can consistently beat the contenders they do face.