Penn State has won 11 games in two of the last three seasons. Their defense has finished top five in scoring defense nationally for three consecutive years. That consistency is the opposite of overrated. An 8-4 prediction ignores their talent acquisition, where they consistently pull top-15 classes. The schedule is tougher, but dismissing a program with that defensive pedigree and a proven 11-win floor is a major reach. They’re built to contend in the Big Ten, not just tread water.